Again, this is not meant to be a complete essay/article. Just scattered notes that Daigo went into full detail on BeasTV stream. Still some good points that can help you if you’re struggling.
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Sorry, I quickly put these together last night; I’ll go into more detail on the stream. Anyway, just like we did with the Nash matchup, the first thing we need to do in order to develop a strategy is to confirm each character’s strengths and weaknesses.
-Fast Walk Speed
-Damage From Midrange is High
-Long Reach on her Normals
Even at close range, Karin has the advantage in damage output, so you may have the first impression that she wins at close range as well, but if you take into account the difference in health totals, there’s actually not that much of a difference in attack power. On the other hand, since Ryu has a DP, you can even say that he has the advantage at close range.
Basically, because of Karin’s advantage at midrange, the ranges Ryu wants to fight at is either outside of her normal range where you can attack with fireballs or at close range. However, if you continue to stay in fireball range then you will gradually get pushed to the corner where a real damage gap will be born, so ideally you want to fight Karin at close range.
As for getting close to Karin, Jump and Dash are good tools, but you should avoid walking. The reason why is that in addition to her longer range and faster walkspeed, there is a damage gap at mid-range, so if you attempt to approach by walking then you are playing to all of her advantages. By Jumping and Dashing, you can take away her strengths. Actually, it’s rather difficult for Karin to deal with jumping since she does not have a meterless DP.
In order for Karin to deal with jumps without spending meter, she must either walk forward to go under the jump or walk backwards to Anti-Air with normal attacks. Using fireballs is effective against both of these options, but the most beneficial tool here is sweep. Sweeping is the strongest move against walking opponents (Karin, Vega, etc.). Your opponent must be wary of your sweep which will cause them to stop walking and block low more often, which in turn gives you more chances to dash forward and stay on top of them.
About V-Gauge: Karin’s normals are very easy to confirm and V-reversal, so if you have meter then look to do so. On the other hand, at close range your fireballs and heavy attacks are also prone to being V-Reversal’d, so try not to use them. If you have full V-Gauge, then you sweep without any risk, so at this point your opponent should begin to become even more wary and sweep and begin blocking low more often. This is your chance to walk or dash forward.
When Karin has full V-Gauge, you need to watch out her Stand RH > V-Trigger cancel; however, since your projectile and jump are still effective, you just need to walk and dash forward less to deal with it.